Paper research · pre-game · Phase 3
BIG OWL RESEARCH BOARD
Built Tue 9/8 · 6:18 PM ET · ESPN injuries OK (CFB, NFL) · Cleatz splits OK (DK HND/BET proxy; merged 5) · TheSpread steam OK (open→now; merged 6; moved 5 / flat 1) · ESPN logos OK (NFL, CFB) · injuries merged: 4 · public_tease merged: 5 · steam merged: 6
Status
PLAY
LEAN
HOLD
PASS
Last updated · Tue 9/8 · 6:18 PM ET
Slate rows
27
research_board.csv
PLAY / LEAN
5
5 play · 0 lean
HOLD
1
weather / wait
PASS
21
large gap skipped
TOP OPPORTUNITIES
CFB
PLAY
Tennessee State at Georgia
CFB
PLAY
Ohio at Nebraska
CFB
PLAY
Washington State at Washington
EPL
PLAY
Arsenal vs Chelsea
EPL
PLAY
Manchester City vs Coventry
SLATE TABLE · EVENT · MARKET · OUR NUMBER · GAP · INJURY · PUBLIC · STEAM · VERDICT
Sport
Status
When
Sort
| Kick ET | Event | Market | Our number | Gap | Injury | Public/tease | Steam | Verdict | Ledger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFB Sat 9/5 · 3:00 PM ET |
Tennessee State at Georgia FPI Georgia by 61.9 vs market -46.5. Athens heat ~100F / dangerous heat for 3pm. FCS TSU 0-1. Paper only. |
Georgia -46.5 · spread | -61.9 (ESPN FPI) | +15.4 | C Bobo + EDGE Gabe Harris cleared to return (AJC) | HND 77% / BET 74% fav · Cleatz | open -8.5 → now -12 (-3.5 dog) · TheSpread | PLAY | CFB-003 |
| CFB Sat 9/5 · 12:00 PM ET |
Liberty at James Madison Massey JMU by ~20.5 (gap ~14) but no same-day injury/weather fact — barred by desk rules. |
James Madison -6.5 · spread | -20.5 (Massey MOV) | +14 | — | HND>BET +24 und · Cleatz | open -6.5 → now -6.5 (flat) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| CFB Sat 9/5 · 12:00 PM ET |
Ball State at Ohio State SP+ OSU by ~60.4 vs market -50.5 (gap ~9.9). Columbus thunderstorm/hail risk cuts against blowout side — HOLD weather. |
Ohio State -50.5 · spread | -60.4 (ESPN SP+) | +9.9 | — | HND>BET +16 und · Cleatz | open -50.5 → now -50.5 (flat) · TheSpread | HOLD | — |
| CFB Sat 9/5 · 12:00 PM ET |
Ohio at Nebraska Massey market NEB ~-24 / Massey MOV -15.5 (gap ~8.5) vs consensus Ohio +23.5. FPI NEB win% 91.7% also short of market. Paper only. |
Ohio +23.5 · spread | -15.5 (Massey MOV) | +8.5 | RT Tree Babalade out/camp injury — Gunnar Gottula starts; NWS heat advisory Lincoln | HND 63% / BET 66% fav · Cleatz | RLM? open -24.5 → now -23.5 (+1 dog) · TheSpread | PLAY | CFB-004 |
| CFB Fri 9/11 · 7:30 PM ET |
Rutgers at Boston College Blue Chip model RUTG -4.0 (edge -7.5 toward Rutgers) vs market BC -3.5 (Bovada/Blue Chip). Week table also RU -3.7 vs BC -3.5 (~7 gap). PASS lock today — needs … |
Boston College -3.5 · spread | 4.0 (Blue Chip power) | -7.5 | — | HND 50% / BET 52% fav · Cleatz | open -6.5 → now -3.5 (+3 dog) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| CFB Sat 9/5 · 12:00 PM ET |
Oregon State at Houston Massey HOU by ~13.5 (gap ~7 toward OSU) but UH heat plan / 94F — weather favors home not the Massey dog. |
Houston -20.5 · spread | -13.5 (Massey MOV) | -7 | — | HND>BET +13 und · Cleatz | RLM? open -19.5 → now -20.5 (-1 dog) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| CFB Sat 9/5 · 3:30 PM ET |
North Texas at Indiana FPI IU by 33.9 (gap 6.6 toward UNT) but SP+ IU by 39.9 ≈ market. Models conflict — PASS. |
Indiana -40.5 · spread | -33.9 (ESPN FPI (SP+ conflict)) | -6.6 | — | HND 74% / BET 67% fav · Cleatz | RLM? open -40.5 → now -39.5 (+1 dog) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| CFB Sun 9/6 · 4:00 PM ET |
Washington State at Washington FPI WASH 9.9 / WSU -4.1 +HFA3 → ~17 vs market -23.5. Predictor 87.9%. Paper only. |
Washington -23.5 · spread | -16.9 (ESPN FPI+HFA) | +6.5 | WASH C Landen Hatchett OUT (wrist); Dieterich starts (SI) | n/a | open -21.5 → now -23 (-1.5 dog) · TheSpread | PLAY | CFB-005 |
| CFB Sat 9/5 · 7:30 PM ET |
Clemson at LSU Massey LSU by ~3.5 (gap ~6–7) but FPI -9.5 / SP+ -9.8 ≈ market. Gap not consensus; both sides healthy. |
LSU -10.0 · spread | -3.5 (Massey (FPI/SP+ ≈ market)) | -6.5 | — | HND>BET +11 und · Cleatz | RLM? open -9.5 → now -10.5 (-1 dog) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| CFB Sat 9/5 · 3:30 PM ET |
Marshall at Penn State Massey PSU by ~29.5 (gap ~5–6). No same-day injury/weather locking the favorite. |
Penn State -24.5 · spread | -29.5 (Massey MOV) | +5 | — | HND>BET +27 und · Cleatz | open -23.5 → now -23.5 (flat) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| EPL Sun 9/6 · 11:30 AM ET |
Arsenal vs Chelsea ClubELO ARS 2032 vs CHE 1888 +HFA~65 → ~+2.1g vs OddStorm -0.75 @1.98. Massey EPL Cloudflare-blocked. Paper only. |
Arsenal -0.75 · asian_handicap | -2.1 (ClubELO+HFA) | +1.4 | Caicedo doubt (Chelsea); Saliba out / Guimaraes available (Arsenal) | n/a | n/a | PLAY | EPL-003 |
| EPL Sat 9/5 · 10:00 AM ET |
Manchester City vs Coventry ClubELO MCI 2021 vs COV 1692 (+HFA ~65 → ~+3.3g) vs OddStorm AH City -2 @1.86 (gap ≥1.0g). Coventry 0-2. Paper only. |
Manchester City -2 · asian_handicap | -3.3 (ClubELO+HFA) | +1.3 | Doku injured; Semenyo projected start (Racing Post) | n/a | n/a | PLAY | EPL-002 |
| NFL Thu 9/10 · 8:35 PM ET |
San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams Melbourne Cricket Ground / Netflix. FPI Rams by 2.9 (60.5%) vs market LAR -3.5. Gap 0.6 < 4. Neutral-site international. Paper only. |
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 · spread | -2.9 (ESPN FPI) | +0.6 | San Francisco 49ers: M. Williams (Out); K. Rourke (Questionable); U. Stout (Questionable) | Los Angeles Rams: K. Thomas II (Injured Reserve); T. Ferguson (Questionable); A. Jackson (Questionable) [ESPN Tue 9/8 · 6:18 PM ET] | n/a | n/a | PASS | — |
| CFB Sat 9/5 · 3:30 PM ET |
Boise State at Oregon Massey / FPI / SP+ all ~-24.5 to -26 — no 4-pt gap. |
Oregon -24.5 · spread | -25.0 (Massey/FPI/SP+) | +0.5 | — | HND 90% / BET 87% fav · Cleatz | open -24.5 → now -24.5 (flat) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| LALIGA Sun 9/6 · 12:30 PM ET |
Levante at Malaga Massey Levante -0.5 / ClubELO tiny; OddStorm near pickem. Gap <1.0. Paper only. |
Malaga 0 · asian_handicap | -0.5 (Massey MOV) | +0.5 | — | n/a | n/a | PASS | — |
| CFB Sun 9/6 · 7:30 PM ET |
Wisconsin at Notre Dame FPI ND 25.9 / WIS 4.8 → ND by 21.0 vs market -20.5. Gap 0.5 < 4. Neutral Lambeau 74F. Paper only. |
Notre Dame -20.5 · spread | -21.0 (ESPN FPI (neutral Lambeau)) | +0.5 | — | HND 82% / BET 85% fav · Cleatz | open -20.5 → now -20.5 (flat) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| CFB Thu 9/10 · 8:00 PM ET |
Florida A&M at Miami Blue Chip MIA -56.0 vs market MIA -55.5 (DK; ESPN board also ~-56.5). Gap ~0–1 < 4. FCS@FBS. Heat Hard Rock noted; not a gap lock. Paper only. |
Miami -55.5 · spread | -56.0 (Blue Chip power) | +0.5 | Florida Gators: K. Jackson (Out) [ESPN Tue 9/8 · 6:18 PM ET] | n/a | open -49.5 → now -55.5 (-6 dog) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| LALIGA Sun 9/6 · 12:30 PM ET |
Osasuna at Alaves Massey Alaves -0.5 / ClubELO ~+0.5 home; OddStorm Alaves -0.25 ~even. Gap <1.0. Paper only. |
Alaves -0.25 · asian_handicap | -0.5 (Massey MOV) | +0.2 | — | n/a | n/a | PASS | — |
| LALIGA Sun 9/6 · 3:00 PM ET |
Sevilla at Espanyol Massey Espanyol -0.5 / ClubELO ~+0.5 home; OddStorm Espanyol -0.25 ~even. Gap <1.0. Paper only. |
Espanyol -0.25 · asian_handicap | -0.5 (Massey MOV) | +0.2 | — | n/a | n/a | PASS | — |
| LALIGA Sun 9/6 · 10:15 AM ET |
Barcelona at Valencia ClubELO BAR 2010 / VAL 1751 +HFA65 → Barca ~+1.94g away; Massey MOV -1.5; OddStorm main ~Barca -1.75 @1.93. Gap 0.19–0.44 <1.0. Paper only. |
Barcelona -1.75 · asian_handicap | -1.94 (ClubELO+HFA) | +0.2 | — | n/a | n/a | PASS | — |
| CFB Sun 9/6 · 7:30 PM ET |
Louisville at Ole Miss FPI MISS 16.0 / LOU 9.5 → MISS by 6.6 vs market -6.5. Gap ~0. Predictor 73.6%. Nashville 91F noted but no gap. Paper only. |
Ole Miss -6.5 · spread | -6.6 (ESPN FPI (neutral Nashville)) | +0.1 | — | HND>BET +11 und · Cleatz | open -6.5 → now -6.5 (flat) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| NFL Wed 9/9 · 8:20 PM ET |
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks FPI SEA by 3.4 (61.1% win) vs market SEA -3.5 (ESPN DK). Gap ~0.1 < 4. Hold any lean to Wed inactives. Kickoff 8:20pm ET NBC. Paper only. |
Seattle -3.5 · spread | -3.4 (ESPN FPI) | +0.1 | New England Patriots: R. Stevenson (Active); T. Henderson (Out); B. Schooler (Out) | Seattle Seahawks: A. Smith (Questionable); T. Horton (Questionable); T. Okada (Out) [ESPN Tue 9/8 · 6:18 PM ET] | n/a | n/a | PASS | — |
| EPL Sun 9/6 · 9:00 AM ET |
Everton vs Manchester United ClubELO EVE 1817 / MNU 1885 +HFA65 → essentially pickem vs OddStorm AH 0 (Man U 1.49). Gap <1.0g. Paper only. |
Manchester United 0 · asian_handicap | 0.0 (ClubELO+HFA) | 0 | — | n/a | n/a | PASS | — |
| CFB Fri 9/11 · 7:00 PM ET |
Villanova at Louisville ESPN board LOU -36.5. No free FPI/SP+/Massey ≥4 gap sourced this run. FCS@FBS. Paper only. |
Louisville -36.5 · spread | (ESPN odds only) | — | — | HND>BET +44 und · Cleatz | open -37.5 → now -36.5 (+1 dog) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| CFB Fri 9/11 · 7:00 PM ET |
Norfolk State at Virginia ESPN board UVA -44.5. No free FPI/SP+/Massey ≥4 gap sourced this run. FCS@FBS. Paper only. |
Virginia -44.5 · spread | (ESPN odds only) | — | Virginia Cavaliers: W. Bettridge (Active) [ESPN Tue 9/8 · 6:18 PM ET] | HND>BET +13 und · Cleatz | RLM? open -43.5 → now -44.5 (-1 dog) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| CFB Fri 9/11 · 7:30 PM ET |
Richmond at NC State Weeknight FCS@FBS. No free market/power ≥4 gap sourced this run — PASS. Paper only. |
NC State — · spread | (desk note) | — | — | HND>BET +19 und · Cleatz | open -30.5 → now -30.5 (flat) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
| CFB Fri 9/11 · 8:00 PM ET |
Missouri at Kansas #25 Missouri @ Kansas ~8pm ET FOX. ESPN board MIZ -5.5. No free FPI/SP+/Blue Chip ≥4 gap sourced this run — PASS. Paper only. |
Missouri -5.5 · spread | (ESPN odds only) | — | — | HND>BET +39 und · Cleatz | open -6.5 → now -5.5 (+1 dog) · TheSpread | PASS | — |
Gap color: green ≥4 football / ≥1 soccer; yellow thin; red against market_side. Client sort/filter: sport / status / when + sort. Default When = Upcoming games; |gap| desc. PASS/HOLD rows dimmed; PLAY/LEAN stay bright. public_tease = free DK handle% vs bets% (Cleatz) — proxy only, not Action sharp. steam = free open→now (TheSpread) — never invent opens; n/a if no free open.